Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction.
Hey so for real there is a pretty high risk of coffee being extinct in the wild by 2080. Which, I mean, initially might not seem like such a big deal because there is so much coffee under cultivation anyway? But wild coffee provides a really important reservoir of genetic diversity so this would seriously negatively impact farmed coffee production. Also if coffee habitat is collapsing then things are probably going really badly for tropical high-altitude ecosystem.
Anyway if you’re interested the paper is open-access so no need to email me for a PDF for once.(via jakke)